“We have some bad news here. The world is still at risk, with the risk of severe disease still high, with infections at higher levels, which means that in many cases, people with sick or dying from the virus are still catching it and spreading the virus from person to person. The recent decline in cases over a short timeframe is the result of the combination of improved monitoring, improved virus control techniques, increased vigilance in hospitals and additional surveillance activity among hospitals, in addition to better case tracing,” say the experts;
As you’ve probably noticed, I’m not getting into any debate with you about a “science-based” view, or what constitutes scientific consensus; what I am going to do is make the case that there is a scientific consensus, based on the available data, and that the official and most “trendy”-looking “top” scientific journals all say the same thing: there is definitely some evidence of an increase in COVID (if you’ve heard the term “COVID” before, you can find a much more in-depth primer on this in my blog here ). And that evidence (if there’s any) indicates that the current rate of global pandemic-level disease is about 10 times normal, and has been increasing since 1997 with no sign of a slowdown whatsoever, as we’ve reported numerous times here . (This is not to say that there haven’t been some recent cases in which cases were reported that are of a similar trend, but these don’t necessarily add to this overall evidence.) Now, the “main” papers published in the ‘top’ medical journals by researchers in this area, from papers at MIT, Harvard, Columbia and others like them, are just as pretty, and do not add to this overall evidence: A Review of the Worldwide Pandemic Influenza (COVID) Research, PLoS Medicine, January 2014,
The recent rise in influenza-like illness is not only a problem for health systems but is also a problem for global economic productivity, and global economic growth. The current epidemic is causing long-term disruption not only in the economies of the countries in the epicenter of the epidemic but also in the economies of many other countries. It also threatens the sustainability of world incomes. “With global economic integration already in place to some extent, we expect future pandemics in all countries to have a devastating impact on their domestic economies, as demonstrated by the history of past epidemics.” Dr. Frank W. Willemsen, Harvard Medical School and Professor, Department of Public Health, Harvard University, June 13, 2013, “The Pandemic Continues: New Pandemic Trends ,” Journal of the American Medical Association.
Of all the papers I found, only two were so-called peer-reviewed and all are from the top journals in their fields. They all say: “There is some evidence of an increase in COVID (1) and an apparent reduction in COVID incidence after 2013.”
The above studies were published in peer-reviewed journals and all of them are referenced in this post:
So what do the scientific community expect? They want a quick dramatic uptick in the frequency of COVID, and as soon as this happens, the “medical” community will be saying that “no” once again. And the WHO will say “YES” in return. (Remember that WHO is the body best suited for overseeing global health and preventing pandemics)
This scenario for a quick surge in pandemics is very consistent with an economic theory of disease : we want an upsurge in disease in order to make people more productive . The real question is how this upsurge is to be allocated , and who will decide ?
No one, that is, except the people who get rich from selling “things that are good for you” - and who, thanks to scientific consensus, must be our best “science-based” allies in this, and not the usual “health-care industry” - and that’s why most people are going to fall for this.
And what exactly does this mean for the “scientific” community? A quick look at the new Lancet paper, for example:
The Lancet, June 5, 2014, The pandemic in developing countries has now reached epidemic proportions. Since 2000, cases have more than doubled in six emerging and developing countries, causing severe losses in health services and economic growth, and increasing the risk of spread to other countries. We describe here trends since 2000 that have contributed to this pandemic and that can inform our thinking about how to prevent and respond to it. As we noted at the time, this represents a challenge to the global economy that deserves urgent action. We propose a global pandemic response strategy in a changing world. We discuss the recent emergence and spread of influenza A virus and the challenge of its management in developed and emerging countries. We assess the available evidence on pandemic epidemic epidemiology and predict the distribution of events during the 2014-2015 outbreak.
As a result, the “science-based” medical community would