The drop in Asia shares continued to put pressure on emerging markets as well–and as the day progressed, the worst stocks went flat and the S&P 500 fell 5,000 (just under )
And today we will be hearing about the US GDPand the US stock market and we will be hearing from someother world leadersregarding the state of global economy and how they think the US economy will respond to the Fed meeting today. So, there we have it. The US and the world’s economy is still very weak and it seems, with another month of bad news and the Fed meeting comes along and the Dow hits 21,000 or something or the Nasdaq reaches 5,000 again.
It looks like we are going to continue to be in a low price action for a long time. The real question is how long it is going to be–whether there is a massive short squeeze or, conversely, how long the Fed is going to be keeping its foot on the accelerator. We will be hearing from a few other leaders this week about the state of the world economy and how the Fed might respond to their calls to hike interest rates. But, so far at least, the responses from the Fed have been very subdued–they were surprised by the weakness and, again, they believe the economy will not do anything too terribly different than it always does. So, as we go forward in the month, we could probably have a slow recovery but we could also see a real recovery–and it would be a nice kind of recovery. And that recovery could be the kind that the stock market gets up to it’s all-time record high, which I think would be the case given this kind of near-zero interest rates policy that the central bank has been pushing–but could also be the market getting a much bigger rebound. Here are some charts from Bloomberg (the stock market is down 6.2% in the year – see bottom of article). I’m going to leave it to you to draw your own conclusions but it does provide some interesting perspectives.
Meanwhile I’ve just come back from a trip down to Mexico, meeting with the Fed, and the Mexican stock market is up 8.7% since the beginning of the year, and they are holding a massive rally, which makes me think they have got the economy moving in the wrong direction.
So, keep on keeping on folks. This is something that really does cause concern for markets. As I say at the top of this article, the stock market is right now–and so are things like government spending and exports. No one can do anything else. And, you know, there are going to be many more lows to come. Which means that the Fed is going to have to keep the pace of changes at a very slow rate–or else the economy will just keep falling and the market will never recover.
– By Andy Lih